The Pre-War and Semi-War State

In our text on the occasion of the 20th anniversary of the bombing of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and the Kumanovo Agreement, which brought some kind of peace to Kosovo, we were able to speak about some kind of status quo, a situation in which Kosovo could not round out its statehood, yet  Serbia did not try too hard to bring Kosovo back under its authority, settling for influence in the north of Kosovo. However, it could be said that the events of the next five years — on several occasions almost to the point of war — almost completely reversed any progress made in the previous twenty. 

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This coincided with the change of government in Kosovo and the victory of the Vetëvendosje (“Self-Determination”) movement and Albin Kurti, whose campaign placed the relationship with Serbia on the back burner, in favor of priorities such as the fight against corruption, crime, and improving the economic outlook, primarily poverty reduction and improving the social protection of citizens. Those promises, as well as the fact that the population had been fed up with the previous politics personified by Ramush Haradinaj and Hashim Thaçi, contributed to Vetëvendosje’s ability to form a government without the need for coalition partners after the elections held in February 2021 (they won 50.28% of the votes).[1]

At the same time, the Serbian List won all 10 mandates guaranteed to the Serbian minority in Kosovo according to the Constitution.[2] 

In July of the following year, the Government of Kosovo adopted a measure according to which everyone who enters Kosovo with Serbian documents receives a temporary certificate as a replacement, while those with license plates from Kosovo cities issued by Serbian authorities must re-register their vehicles.[3] 

At the time, the Kosovo media mostly reported the statements of EU officials who accepted the idea of ​​reciprocity, with the caveat that an agreement must still be reached through a dialogue between Pristina and Belgrade. 

The other side has invested a lot more emotion. The President of Serbia held an extraordinary press conference where he emphasized that Serbia would win, and asked international forces to prevent potential conflicts, which was reported by almost all pro-regime media outlets in Serbia.[4] 

This was followed by the first wave of barricades that blocked the border crossings, primarily those that connect the north of Kosovo and Serbia (Jarinje and Brnjak), which are controlled by Kosovo Serbs, who are in turn under the control of Belgrade. 

Kurti’s electoral victory also worried the US representatives, who had hitherto had idyllic relations with the Kosovo authorities. No one was particularly interested in changing anything in Kosovo, including the representatives of the international community, and the one person who tried to change something ended up with six bullets in his body — Oliver Ivanović, whose murder — especially the question of who ordered it — remains an unsolved even after six years. 

Kurti hinted at a change in policy, and his first official acts, as well as the Serbs’ reactions, indicated that the period of stability in Kosovo was coming to an end. In this case, he yielded to the demands of the EU and the USA and postponed the application of reciprocity, but soon an agreement on license plates and identity cards was reached to the satisfaction of Pristina and European officials.[5] 

The authorities in Prishtina ordered the police to issue warnings to owners of cars with license plates issued by Serbian authorities for Kosovo cities, which Nenad Đurić, the Director of Police for the North of Kosovo, which is made up of Serbs, refused, after which he was suspended. 

The regime media in Serbia again presented that event as a heroic act because Nenad Đurić "stood in defense of the Serbian people" for which he was also awarded a medal by the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić.[6] 

Vučić promised to take care of Đurić and his colleague Aleksandar Filipović because, as the media reported after another press conference: "Serbia takes care of its people."[7] Đurić was presented as a hero in the Serbian media. Courier reported on the interview with Đurić on TV Pink under the title: "Serbian hero Đurić on Kurti's cruelty: Let the yoke be removed from our necks!"[8]

From the Kosovo side, the suspension was presented as a request by Milan Radoičić, the vice-president of the Serbian List, the party that politically representes the Serbs in the Kosovo parliament. Koha Ditore states that Radoičić is on the so-called USA blacklist due to his involvement in international crime, as well as that Đurić publicly supported Radoičić, from whom he also received a gift at Lake Gazovide.[9]

The suspension led to the withdrawal of representatives of the Serbian List, i.e. Serbs, both from the Kosovo Parliament and from all Kosovo institutions, which deepened the crisis. As the reason for leaving the institutions, the media in Serbia cited failure to fulfill obligations from the Brussels Agreement, primarily the formation of the Community of Serb Municipalities. Radio-television of Vojvodina reported the statements of policemen who took off their Kosovo police uniforms in protest, as well as statements of support and understanding from the Serbian opposition. Dragan Đilas, the president of the Freedom and Justice Party, one of the biggest opponents of the government of Aleksandar Vučić, declared that the Serbs' withdrawal from institutions was "a consequence of the unacceptable and extremely dangerous policy of the Pristina authorities."[10]

For the Kosovo media, the withdrawal from the institutions was the result of pressure from Belgrade, and the act itself was characterized by Kosovo President Vjosa Osmani as an act against democracy and the rule of law. Koha reported her statement that illegal structures are trying to destabilize Kosovo and the region.[11]

The Minister of Internal Affairs of Kosovo Xhelal Sveçla then said that the situation in the North could devolve or deteriorate "due to criminal and sometimes terrorist acts of certain groups that are managed and supported by Belgrade".[12] 

New barricades and a new blockade of northern Kosovo followed in December 2023, after the arrest of former policeman Dejan Pantić, who was charged by the Kosovo authorities with participating in the attack on the premises of the Municipal Election Commission in northern Kosovska Mitrovica.[13]

Serbian media outlets portrayed Pantić as an ordinary family man who was unjustly arrested. Kurir ran an article about Pantić as a father of three children, as well as the statement of Petar Petković, director of the Office for Kosovo and Metohija, who said that the arrest of Pantić was "Kurti's revenge" for Serbs withdrawing from the institutions.[14] 

Even the President of Serbia intervened on Panić's behalf, asking European officials for his release, which was subsequently granted and was presented in the media as a victory.[15]

Like Đurić, Pantić received a medal from the President, which was also reported on by the Kosovo media as a curiosity.[16]

In both cases, as in every subsequent case, Kosovo Serbs, in addition to Pristina's demands, emphasized their own demands, i.e., the formation of the Community of Serb Municipalities (CSM), a provision of the Brussels Agreement from 2013, as an obligation of the authorities in Pristina. 

A step forward in the relations between Belgrade and Pristina — or so it was thought, was made on March 18, 2023 in Ohrid, North Macedonia, with an agreement colloquially referred to as the Franco-German agreement being reached. The 10-point agreement envisages the normalization of relations between Belgrade and Pristina, i.e. Serbia and Kosovo, modeled on the agreement between the two Germanys (FRG and GDR).[17] 

In Pristina, they pointed out that this agreement entails the recognition of Kosovo by Serbia, which official Belgrade has denied, stressing that it provides for the final formation of the CSM, which is something that Kurti and Prishtina are trying to avoid by claiming that the CSM is against the Constitution of Kosovo, as well as that they do not want the "Bosnialisation" of Kosovo, i.e. a new Republika Srpska.[18]

In an attempt to inform the public on the function of the CSM, as well as to justify the Ohrid agreement, the media in Serbia claimed that the CSM does not envisage a status like Republika Srpska, but less than that, yet more than a mere non-governmental organization. The Serbia Today portal reported the statement of Dragiša Mijačić, coordinator of the Working Group of the National Convention on the EU for Chapter 35, that an amendment to the Constitution of Kosovo would be necessary for the formation of the CSM.[19] On the other hand, the Prime Minister of Kosovo opposes any change to the Constitution, stating for Kosovo RTK, cited by Kosovo online, that the CSM will be set up within the Constitutional framework.[20]

This agreement has yet to be implemented, just as the CSM has not yet been set up. 

One of the key events that would eventually work in Pristina’s favor was the "terrorist act" in Banjska, after which the positions of Belgrade and Pristina drastically changed in favor of Pristina. 

For Belgrade, this was a rebellion of local Serbs against the regime of Albin Kurti, while for Pristina, it was a terrorist act. Moreover, in Serbia, the actors of the events in Banjska, during which three people died — a Kosovo policeman and three Serb members of an armed group — were given the status of heroes. The media wrote eulogies for them, and composed poems. The 24 Seven portal points out that "The fearless guardians of Serbian hearths will not be forgotten", as well as that "their heroic death clearly exposes the enemies behind this violence, but also inspires the entire Serbian people to move forward as one towards justice, freedom and peace". It further stated that, even though they knew that they were faced with a much stronger enemy, "Serbian heroic blood was boiling in the veins of these Serbian heroes, the call of the ancestors and of the Holy Prince Lazar who said: 'I do not decide whether I will go to battle based on how large the force that threatens me is, but by the sanctity of that which I must protect!'"[21] 

The Vreme weekly reported a social media post by Vladimir Đukanović, MP from the ruling Serbian Progressive Party, calling for a reckoning with those who call the participants in this armed incident attackers, instead of heroes. "Every mutt who calls them 'attackers', 'terrorists' and similar epithets should be remembered well and have his ears pulled out or his face spat at in the middle of the street. I will teach my children about their feat".[22]

What they agreed on in Pristina and Belgrade is that the aforementioned Milan Radoičić was the main organizer of this incident, which he finally admitted through his lawyer at a press conference in Belgrade. His version of events confirmed that he organized the rebellion, after which he fled to Serbia, where he was detained, interrogated, and released.[23] 

For Pristina, this was not only a terrorist act, but also a secession attempt by the north of Kosovo, which is also an act of aggression by Serbia. Koha Ditore broadcast an interview of the Prime Minister of Kosovo for the French media in which he accuses Serbia of aggression in Kosovo. There he claims that the value of confiscated weapons is more than EUR 5 million, as well as that attacks were planned on 37 sites.[24]

Right before the anniversary of the attack in Banjska, an indictment for terrorism was brought in Pristina against 45 people, including Milan Radoičić. The indictment and the media accuse Serbia of organizing the group led by Milan Radoičić. Daily Time reports details of the indictment stating that the investigation showed that Serbia directly supported Radoičić's group by providing them with weapons and training.[25] 

On the other hand, the participants in the attack in Serbia were still praised. Dnevnik from Novi Sad ran a text about billboards that were placed around Serbia to "celebrate heroes from Banjska".[26] 

At another extraordinary press conference, the President of Serbia himself, when asked about the indictment in Pristina, said that for Serbia, this was not a terrorist act, but he still had no answer to a question about the progress of the investigation that is allegedly being conducted in Serbia. 

The four years of Albin Kurti's rule are coming to an end, and he is preparing for new elections, which will certainly be held in 2025, with the possibility that the Kosovo Parliament may be dissolved even earlier, which would lead to another snap election in Kosovo. The implementation of the Ohrid Agreement also depends on the election results. As one of the failures of Albin Kurti's policy, his opponents point to the fact that Kosovo was not admitted to the Council of Europe. Kurti was criticised by the Kosovo media, which reported the statements of opposition representatives, who again called on Kurti to cooperate more closely with the representatives of the "West" and to "fulfill the request from Germany and France to sending a Draft Statute of the CSM to the Constitutional Court, in order to unblock membership in the Council of Europe."[27]

In the meantime, the majority of citizens from the north of Kosovo switched to Kosovo license plates without much fanfare, and obtained Kosovo documents, and  are becoming part of the Kosovo state step by step. Just before the anniversary of the events in Banjska, Serbian institutions in the north of Kosovo were completely abolished, which led to a new series of protests, reported on for days by the media.[28] The President of Serbia again held an extraordinary press conference where he asked that the situation should return to the time before the Serbs left the Kosovo institutions, and he promised compensation for the Serbs from the north of Kosovo, for which they would still have to go outside the territory of Kosovo. All the media in Serbia reported this news. They report that the President of Serbia has asked that Serbian prosecutors and judges to go back to their posts, as well as the withdrawal of the special forces of the Kosovo Police from the north of Kosovo, and the "immediate formation of the CSM".[29]

This phase of the relationship concluded with the President of Serbia’s visit to New York for the United Nations Security Council session, where he spoke about Kosovo, which was eagerly followed by the pro-regime media in an attempt to give additional importance to the President's address. Alo reported the details of the President's interview to RTS, in which he said that Serbia's position is currently such that it has to preserve peace on the one hand, and on the other hand preserve the life, survival and progress of the Serbian people in the "Autonomous Province of Kosovo and Metohija", as he continues to call the territory that declared its independence from Serbia in 2008.[30]

The abolition of the visa regime for Kosovo citizens, first those with Kosovo documents, and later those with Serbian documents issued in Kosovo could show the results of the policies of Belgrade and Pristina in one of the next population censuses. 

The recently held population census, the results of which are not yet official, show that Kosovo has about 200,000 fewer inhabitants than 12 years ago. The Kosovo Online portal published an analysis of the results and a conversation with political scientist Ognjen Gogić who says that "whoever tried to solve the demographic crisis overnight saw that it doesn't work that way. But yes, indeed, Kosovo, as well as the entire region, must ask itself who will live there in general, and above all, why there is this trend of emigration due to economic reasons. This is something that requires serious political thought". He also quotes Milica Andrić Rakić, the program manager of the NGO Social Initiative, who says that Kosovo has a huge problem: "What the results generally show is that Kosovo has a serious outflow problem. Kosovo is the only country in the region that has a positive birth rate, so many more births than deaths, and yet about 200,000 people have been lost, i.e, the number of inhabitants has decreased by 200,000 since the 2011 census. And that is a serious problem."[31]

One of the reasons for this is the fact that the Serbs from the north boycotted the census, as they also boycotted the local elections. However, it is also a fact that a large number of inhabitants, primarily from the north, have left Kosovo. 

What is certain, and what the President of Serbia himself said in his public speeches, is that until the elections in Kosovo, more actions can be expected in the north of Kosovo, such as the opening of the bridge over the Ibar that divides Mitrovica into two parts. 

In the coming period, the biggest challenge will be to keep the population in Kosovo, and as a basic prerequisite for that, sabre rattling, murders, arrests, crime, and corruption will have to stop being a daily occurrence, which Kurti promised before he became prime minister. But, despite Kosovo’s progress towards rounding out its statehood, Belgrade's influence is too great. Two sides are needed for peace, as well as for war. 
 

[1] https://www.koha.net/en/arberi/262242/vv-me-50-28-qytetaret-u-deklaruan-se-regjimi-i-vjeter-duhet-te-shkoje

[2] https://n1info.rs/vesti/srpska-lista-ubedljivo-vodi-u-svim-srpskim-sredinama-na-kosovu/

[3] https://www.kosovo-online.com/analize/jos-tri-dana-do-1-avgusta-sta-ceka-srbe-na-severu-i-kako-ce-da-izgleda-sprovodjenje-novih

 

[4] https://www.novosti.rs/vesti/politika/1141024/uzivo-aleksandar-vucic-obracanje-kosovo-metohija

[5] https://www.koha.net/en/arberi/serbia-pajtohet-ti-pranoje-leternjoftimet-e-republikes-se-kosoves

[6] https://www.novosti.rs/c/vesti/politika/1169453/odbio-deli-opomene-srbima-suspendovan-nenad-djuric-jer-stao-odbranu-srpskog-naroda-kim

[7] https://www.rts.rs/vesti/politika/5013424/vucic-orden-kim-djuric-filipovic-policija.html

[8] https://www.kurir.rs/vesti/politika/4046147/srpski-heroj-komandir-nenad-djuric-o-kurtijevom-zulumu

[9] https://www.koha.net/en/arberi/lidhjet-e-beogradit-me-policet-serbe-ne-kosove

[10] https://rtv.rs/rsn/politika/srbi-napustaju-kosovske-institucije-dok-pristina-ne-primeni-sporazume_1388293.html

[11] https://www.koha.net/en/arberi/osmani-pas-terheqjes-se-serbeve-serbia-u-terhoq-nga-marreveshja-e-brukselit

[12] https://www.slobodnaevropa.org/a/srbija-kosovo-policija-djuric-filipovic/32169464.html

[13] https://www.slobodnaevropa.org/a/optuznica-za-terorizam-kosovo-cik/32729239.html

 

[14] https://www.kurir.rs/vesti/politika/4067650/ovo-je-srbin-uhapsen-na-jarinju-otac-troje-dece-zrtva-kurtijeve-odmazde-foto

[15] https://pink.rs/politika/462730/pobeda-uhapseni-policajac-dejan-pantic-bice-pusten-da-se-brani-sa-slobode-posle-tri-nedelje-pritvora

[16] https://www.koha.net/en/arberi/vuciqi-dekoron-dejan-pantiqin-ish-pjesetarin-e-policise-se-kosoves-te-akuzuar-per-terrorizem

[17] https://europeanwesternbalkans.rs/sporazum-o-putu-ka-normalizaciji-odnosa-izmedju-srbije-i-kosova-blago-izmenjen-francusko-nemacki-predlog-baziran-na-sporazumu-dve-nemacke/

[18] https://www.koha.net/en/arberi/kurti-slejojme-krijimin-e-republikes-serpska-ne-veri

[19] https://www.sd.rs/vesti/kosovo/kako-ce-zso-izgledati-manje-od-republike-srpske-vise-od-nvo-2023-01-18

[20] https://www.kosovo-online.com/en/news/politics/kurti-community-agreement-everything-signed-so-far-must-be-implemented-22-3-2023

[21] https://24sedam.rs/politika/vesti/246303/vecna-slava-stradalim-herojima-iz-banjske/vest

[22] https://vreme.com/vesti/srbi-ubijeni-u-napadu-na-kosovsku-policiju-dobijaju-staus-heroja/

[23] https://www.bbc.com/serbian/lat/balkan-66905571

 

[24] https://www.koha.net/en/arberi/kurti-per-mediumin-francez-sulmi-ne-banjske-akt-agresioni-nga-serbia

[25] https://www.koha.net/en/arberi/prokuroria-serbia-pergjegjese-kryesore-per-financimin-e-radoiciqit-dhe-grupit-te-tij

[26] https://www.dnevnik.rs/vesti/politika/slava-herojima-iz-banjske-snazna-poruka-porodicama-stradalih-srba-osvanula-novom-sadu-2024-09-24

[27] https://radiokontaktplus.org/vesti/koha-opozicija-kritikuje-kurtija-poziva-ga-da-poslusa-zapad-u-vezi-sa-zso/71000/

[28] https://www.slobodnaevropa.org/a/srbi-kosovo-sever-protest-mitrovica/33103933.html

[29] https://n1info.rs/vesti/vucic-najavio-mere-za-kosovo-da-se-stanje-vrati-na-postignuto-i-dostignuto-u-procesu-dijaloga/

[30] https://www.alo.rs/vesti/politika/961559/vucic-o-razgovorima-o-kosovu-i-metohiji-celu-noc-i-jutro-analiziram-sve/vest

[31] https://www.kosovo-online.com/vesti/analize/preliminarni-rezultati-popisa-na-kosovu-sta-je-statistika-pokazala-sta-sakrila-15-7